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the new "washington post"/abc news poll has president obama leading mitt romney by three points. that's three points among likely voters, 49% to 46%. in that same poll taken two weeks ago before, before the first debate, the president led by just two. he's picked up a point. and the new politico/george washington university battleground poll shows the president with a one-point lead. the same poll taken before the debate had the president with a two-point lead. you see how it's dancing around that knife edge. anyway, both campaigns, both the president's and romney's are into the closing argument phase of the race and both sides are putting out new ads today. first, this ad from the obama campaign. i think it's the best they've ever done, the finest ad i have seen in this campaign so far, and it's positive, thank god. it's narrated by the great morgan freeman, the spencer tracy of our time. let's listen. >> every president inherits challenges. few have faced so many. four years later our enemies have been brought to justice, our heroes are coming home. assembly lines are humming a
the new "washington post"/abc news poll has president obama leading mitt romney by three points. that's three points among likely voters, 49% to 46%. in that same poll taken two weeks ago before, before the first debate, the president led by just two. he's picked up a point. and the new politico/george washington university battleground poll shows the president with a one-point lead. the same poll taken before the debate had the president with a two-point lead. you see how it's...
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. >> the poll numbers for romney and ryan soaring after the first presidential debate. democrats openly counting on joe biden tonight to stop that republican momentum. >> osama bin laden is dead and general motors is arrive. >> the 2012 vice presidential debate starts right now. >>> happy debate night, everybody. the best television series of 2011 was the republican primary debates. there were 1 million of them. they played to huge audiences week after week and never disappointed. now it is october 2012 and the most compelling thing on television anywhere in the country is once again the debates. only now there are only two candidates at a time and the stakes are way higher. i'm rachel maddow. here on our msnbc headquarters in new york. i'm joined by ed schultz, reverend al sharpton, chris hayes, steve schmidt. lawrence o'donnell is our man in the spin room tonight. the one and only chris matthews is at centre college in danville, kentucky, the site of tonight's debate. chris, is this unusually high stakes for a vice presidential debate? >> well, it's great being with y
. >> the poll numbers for romney and ryan soaring after the first presidential debate. democrats openly counting on joe biden tonight to stop that republican momentum. >> osama bin laden is dead and general motors is arrive. >> the 2012 vice presidential debate starts right now. >>> happy debate night, everybody. the best television series of 2011 was the republican primary debates. there were 1 million of them. they played to huge audiences week after week and never...
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the polls. i'm have a nonstop gerald ford party here. >> we should have combined them. >> that's a more useful pursuit, filler of our time than trying to figure out what will happen with these polls. i think that what's happened here is this race is exactly where it's been for months, and that is that it's extremely close. it particularly favors obama narrowly in the swing states. i think a lot of us got carried away when romney was having that terrible time. i think a lot of us got carried away in the other direction when obama flopped in the first debat debate. i think we've seen swings in polls, but the fundamentals of the race haven't changed that dramatically. now maybe obama will do something tomorrow to make it change nor dramatically, but it still seems like the fundamentals are where they've been for a long time now. >> steve, what do you think about this new trend to aggregate the swing state polls andle that will tell you what? >> no. there's a new one out today that takes 10, 12, 15
the polls. i'm have a nonstop gerald ford party here. >> we should have combined them. >> that's a more useful pursuit, filler of our time than trying to figure out what will happen with these polls. i think that what's happened here is this race is exactly where it's been for months, and that is that it's extremely close. it particularly favors obama narrowly in the swing states. i think a lot of us got carried away when romney was having that terrible time. i think a lot of us got...
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can the troops on the ground override romney's rise in the polls. and if president obama wins re-election, what will he owe the clintons? a fascinating look at what's being talked about behind the scenes. of any small business credit card! how does this thing work? oh, i like it! [ garth ] sven's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! woo-hoo!!! so that's ten security gators, right? put them on my spark card! why settle for less? testing hot tar... great businesses deserve the most rewards! [ male announcer ] the spark business card from capital one. choose unlimited rewards with 2% cash back or double miles on every purchase, every day! what's in your wallet? here's your invoice. it's called bankamerideals, from bank of america. i choose the cash back deals in my mobile or online banking. i just use my bank of america debit or credit card when i pay. put in my account. this is cash back on top of other rewards we already get. and best of all, it's free. friends help friends get deals. pass it on. [ male announcer ] introduc
can the troops on the ground override romney's rise in the polls. and if president obama wins re-election, what will he owe the clintons? a fascinating look at what's being talked about behind the scenes. of any small business credit card! how does this thing work? oh, i like it! [ garth ] sven's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! woo-hoo!!! so that's ten security gators, right? put them on my spark card! why settle for less? testing hot tar... great businesses...
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all that will matter from here on on is the performance of obama and romney. i think the public will come away from this slightly more informed than they were before and it was a pretty entertaining debate to watch but it's not the kind of debate that will decide the election. vice presidential debates rarely do. >>. >> it could close the enthusiasm gap. >> but obama has to deliver on that. it can go away just as quickly. >> michael and joan, thank you both. stay with us. much more ahead. >> that's a tough format. it reminded me, i just told neil, of watching a musk objection run across the tundra with somebody underfoot and in this case when it came to style it was paul ryan underfoot because of the moderator allowing biden to do the interrupting, to kind of take control of the conversation. it came to style it was paul it came to style it was paul you can prevent gas with beano meltaways, or treat gas with these after you get it. now that's like sunblock before or sun burn cream later. oh, somebody out there's saying, now i get it! take beano before and ther
all that will matter from here on on is the performance of obama and romney. i think the public will come away from this slightly more informed than they were before and it was a pretty entertaining debate to watch but it's not the kind of debate that will decide the election. vice presidential debates rarely do. >>. >> it could close the enthusiasm gap. >> but obama has to deliver on that. it can go away just as quickly. >> michael and joan, thank you both. stay with...
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the presidential race is tightening this week with polls shifting in mitt romney's favor as president obama's widely criticized performance at the first presidential debate. my colleague diane sawyer spoke with the president in the first television interview since that night. to find out what happened on stage. >> that debate, what happened? >> well, governor romney had a good night. i had a bad night. >> how bad? >> well not the first time i have had a bad night. but i think what is important that the fundamentals of what this race is about haven't changed. >> we are told you watched it split screen. >> uh-huh. >> did you? >> well i watched it afterward. >> was it painful to watch? >> no. look -- diane, i have got to tell you that these are marathons they're not sprints. >> is it possible you handed him the election that night? >> no. >> you are going to win? >> yes. >> you want it more than the first time? >> absolutely. >> but the race is close. and tensions are high. with 26 days remaining until the election we hit the campaign trail with first lady michelle obama. who is being de
the presidential race is tightening this week with polls shifting in mitt romney's favor as president obama's widely criticized performance at the first presidential debate. my colleague diane sawyer spoke with the president in the first television interview since that night. to find out what happened on stage. >> that debate, what happened? >> well, governor romney had a good night. i had a bad night. >> how bad? >> well not the first time i have had a bad night. but i...
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mitt romney and barack obama really neck and neck whether you're looking at the national polls or the battleground state polls. >> yeah, that's right. there's no question about it, joe. and you can see that the -- as we've gotten a little bit further away from that first debate where president obama performed so poorly, you can see that the lingering effects of it have been a little less than we might have thought before. there's no question mitt romney helped himself a little bit in terms of his likability, in terms of conservative and republican enthusiasm. the race in terms of the national numbers with back to being, as you said, joe, a jump ball. i keep looking at that ohio number at the end. when you think about the closer we get to election day, the more we have to think about what are the paths to 270 electoral votes. that ohio number at five is still a big problem for romney if he's going to try to get all the way there. >> richard wolffe, the bottom line is if mitt romney cannot win ohio, and at this point you've got early voting going in, absentee voting going in, that's hap
mitt romney and barack obama really neck and neck whether you're looking at the national polls or the battleground state polls. >> yeah, that's right. there's no question about it, joe. and you can see that the -- as we've gotten a little bit further away from that first debate where president obama performed so poorly, you can see that the lingering effects of it have been a little less than we might have thought before. there's no question mitt romney helped himself a little bit in...
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that indicate a closing of the gender gap with mitt romney running better now in the polls anyway with women? >> i've seen different polls. i think polls are all over the map right now. i do this this is what women were needing to hear tonight. what are the differences on particular issues. i actually think what we'll see after this is, again, this gender gap that's been very strong in favor of the president. i think we'll continue to see it to grow. >> thanks for joining us tonight. >> good to see you. >> rachel, back to you. >> thank you, lawrence. there's been a snap poll in terms of results from tonight's debate. cbs news did a flash poll of uncommitted voters on who they think won tonight's debate. 19% of those voters said the debate was a tie. 31% say that paul ryan won. 50% say that vice president biden won. we're going to be joined in a moment -- we've talked to a couple of people who are functioning as surrogates for the obama campaign tonight. we're going to be speaking with a supporter of ryan and romney in just a moment, congresswoman marsha blackburn in a moment. while we
that indicate a closing of the gender gap with mitt romney running better now in the polls anyway with women? >> i've seen different polls. i think polls are all over the map right now. i do this this is what women were needing to hear tonight. what are the differences on particular issues. i actually think what we'll see after this is, again, this gender gap that's been very strong in favor of the president. i think we'll continue to see it to grow. >> thanks for joining us...
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romney got helped. the race got closer. >> we also had a conservative ideological advantage of conservative in the exit polls. what do you tell folks that look at those numbers? >> this tells you you can't weight your data by party idea. we've said it a million times during the campaign. there's national polls. they had a 15-point swing in party i.d. in two weeks. you get into a problem when they start doing that. what we're seeing is in ohio the effects of the early voting. those people are democratic, and they aren't likely voters, they're definite voters, and that's what's pulling these numbers. >> lee miringhoff, director of the marist poll. always good to see you. we'll see you in a few weeks. >>> vice president biden says he's anticipating a chance to draw a clear contract with the republican proposals at tonight's debate. joining me now, kentucky's democratic governor steve beshear. thanks for being here. >> thanks for coming to the commonwealth of kentucky. >> we love kentucky. as a democrat, yo
romney got helped. the race got closer. >> we also had a conservative ideological advantage of conservative in the exit polls. what do you tell folks that look at those numbers? >> this tells you you can't weight your data by party idea. we've said it a million times during the campaign. there's national polls. they had a 15-point swing in party i.d. in two weeks. you get into a problem when they start doing that. what we're seeing is in ohio the effects of the early voting. those...
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mitt romney. and tonight, the polls show the race is tightening fast. the republican opponent more fired up than ever. his supporters saying they want to know why the president didn't seem to show up and fight. and that's where we began. let's get right to it. >> yeah. >> reporter: that debate, what happened? >> well, governor romney had a good night. i had a bad night. >> reporter: how bad? >> well, it's not the first time i've had a bad night. but i think what's important is that the fundamentals of what this race is about haven't changed. governor romney went to a lot of trouble to try to hide what his positions are, because he knows that those ideas have been rejected. they won't work. and if he's making an honest presentation about what he's proposed, he will lose, because the american people are not going to go back there. what this comes down to is, how are we going to grow an economy in which everybody gets a fair shot? and governor romney's prescription is that if we cut taxes by $5 trill
mitt romney. and tonight, the polls show the race is tightening fast. the republican opponent more fired up than ever. his supporters saying they want to know why the president didn't seem to show up and fight. and that's where we began. let's get right to it. >> yeah. >> reporter: that debate, what happened? >> well, governor romney had a good night. i had a bad night. >> reporter: how bad? >> well, it's not the first time i've had a bad night. but i think what's...
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to a "new york times"/cbs poll, mitt romney leads the president by one point in colorado. last month the president was up one point in that state. in virginia, president obama's lead from last month grew slightly. he's now up 51%-46%. and in wisconsin, the candidates are within the margin of error after the president lost a point from last month and mitt romney gained two. in all three battleground states, voters by double digits believe the economy is getting better compared to the numbers back in july. >> and mark halperin, that may be the big takeaway from this poll. the race is getting much closer. nobody can predict what's going to happen. if you look at a big friend, thoug trend, you've got to look at a lot of americans in these swing states are looking at the economy saying things are getting better. >> it's clearly a huge factor and yet, obviously, the debate from denver is also a huge factor. i think, you know, we look a lot at the margin of error, and these numbers aren't shifting all that much. what's key is in a lot of the states the president is below 50. that
to a "new york times"/cbs poll, mitt romney leads the president by one point in colorado. last month the president was up one point in that state. in virginia, president obama's lead from last month grew slightly. he's now up 51%-46%. and in wisconsin, the candidates are within the margin of error after the president lost a point from last month and mitt romney gained two. in all three battleground states, voters by double digits believe the economy is getting better compared to the...
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in colorado, in one right-leaning poll romney is now up by 3 points. the same showed him losing by 5 before the debate. now he's up by 3. in virginia, the president is ahead by 3 in virginia. that same poll had the president's lead at 5 points before the debate. that shows the president's lead shrinking. in michigan, it's now barack obama by just 3 points. the president had led by 10 last month. now it's down to 3. in ohio today, a poll on the right gives the president an edge of 2 points. that poll in iowa shows a gain for mr. obama, a 5-point gain. in florida, the same poll shows a 4-point swing for romney. he's up by 2 points. so the major fall or minor lift, however, you rattle the number lose, as the overall national polling shifts and the swing state races shift with them, the state where the romney campaign is hoping for the biggest shift of all is in ohio. in modern political history, ohio has been the path to the presidency for republican candidates. if republican candidates win ohio, they win the white house. if mitt romney doesn't win ohio,
in colorado, in one right-leaning poll romney is now up by 3 points. the same showed him losing by 5 before the debate. now he's up by 3. in virginia, the president is ahead by 3 in virginia. that same poll had the president's lead at 5 points before the debate. that shows the president's lead shrinking. in michigan, it's now barack obama by just 3 points. the president had led by 10 last month. now it's down to 3. in ohio today, a poll on the right gives the president an edge of 2 points. that...
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put president obama up by a few points other show mitt romney edging ahead and some indicate that the two men are virtually neck and neck now this have pundits declaring that this election could could come down to a photo finish so this is further proof that each and every vote counts now we've already seen some of the interesting tactics coming out on part of the democrats and republicans in terms of changing the voting system you could call it a way to level the playing field when it comes to voter fraud or a ploy to sway the election the problem is that each state sometimes each individual county has a different set of rules and while those double standards might not guarantee a winner there sure creating a lot of confusion and possibly widening the margin for error are to correspondent on a socket charkha tells us more. you elected me to tell you the truth honesty is the best policy while maybe not in u.s. elections two words define why people hate america double standard on everything this presidential election season these two words are back in full swing the basic definition of
put president obama up by a few points other show mitt romney edging ahead and some indicate that the two men are virtually neck and neck now this have pundits declaring that this election could could come down to a photo finish so this is further proof that each and every vote counts now we've already seen some of the interesting tactics coming out on part of the democrats and republicans in terms of changing the voting system you could call it a way to level the playing field when it comes to...
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just last month in the same poll, romney trailed by eight points. driving romney surge, a spike in republican enthusiasm, more republicans made it through pew's likely voter screen than democrats. and a larger group of registered voters, the candidates are tied at 46. while it's unlikely returns on election day make it unlikely in this pew sample that romney has the upper hand. and looking inside the pew numbers, we're looking at an unlikely -- now romney leads by six, 50-44. will we see that same shift in the battleground state polls? we'll have to see what happened what happens. >> this is the last day for voters to register to vote there, that's why they're both there. romney kicks off a two-day ohio journey, he'll be back in ohio again on friday. meanwhile the president holds an evening rally at ohio state university in columbus. by the way romney starts his day on a family farm in central iowa. another midwestern battleground state. paul ryan does his debate prep today in florida. the vice president signalled a new urgency to voters saying, quo
just last month in the same poll, romney trailed by eight points. driving romney surge, a spike in republican enthusiasm, more republicans made it through pew's likely voter screen than democrats. and a larger group of registered voters, the candidates are tied at 46. while it's unlikely returns on election day make it unlikely in this pew sample that romney has the upper hand. and looking inside the pew numbers, we're looking at an unlikely -- now romney leads by six, 50-44. will we see that...
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today that is usually a pretty good poll that shows romney with a very large lead in florida, i don't think he has that but they need to find a way so that going into the last two weeks with i the debates they hope helping them more they have got one or two or three paths to get to 27 at this, they are not if you talk to honest republicans they are not overwhelmingly confident that, you know, for months they said we would rather be us than them, i don't think you heard too many honest republicans saying that now but he think they have a chance if the next debate goes well, on the other side, their strategy is, their premise is we have got to lead, the electorial college is still very much tilting toward them and that they believe that their ground game is vastly enter superior, and early voting and the mechanics of turning people out on voting day they think are significantly better and i think based on what i have been able to learn that is not a crazy position to have and they want to go back to doing what they have done so well and i think you will see subterranean messaging on thi
today that is usually a pretty good poll that shows romney with a very large lead in florida, i don't think he has that but they need to find a way so that going into the last two weeks with i the debates they hope helping them more they have got one or two or three paths to get to 27 at this, they are not if you talk to honest republicans they are not overwhelmingly confident that, you know, for months they said we would rather be us than them, i don't think you heard too many honest...
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with romney moving ahead in virginia in one poll. >> how are you? >> reporter: team owe what tells us the president will go after romney on his tax cut plans and his ideas for winding down the war in afghanistan. in tuesday's debate, audience members will ask the questions in the town hall format. >> he's got to be able to go on offense without being offensive to the audience. he's got to go on offense and defend his vision, his path to where he'd take the country in the second term. >> i had a debate about a week ago. i did enjoy myself. >> reporter: as for romney, who is energized by the momentum and bigger crowds he's seen since the debate. our debate coach says, keep it up. >> i can't imagine he would get overconfident. he needs to do much of the same he did in the first debate. >> reporter: the big face-off set for tuesday night. the owe what campaign just announced it has more than 4 million donors this cycle. that's a presidential record. >> thank you, david. >>> let's bring in jake tapper for more. he's in washington filling in for george st
with romney moving ahead in virginia in one poll. >> how are you? >> reporter: team owe what tells us the president will go after romney on his tax cut plans and his ideas for winding down the war in afghanistan. in tuesday's debate, audience members will ask the questions in the town hall format. >> he's got to be able to go on offense without being offensive to the audience. he's got to go on offense and defend his vision, his path to where he'd take the country in the...
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democrats are charging again that the romney/ryan math does not add up. joining me now, republican congressman michael burgess of texas. he's also a member of the tea party caucus. thanks for being with us. >> great. good to be with you, richard. thanks for having me on. >> you bet. defense spending, let's start with that. moderator martha raddatz pressed ryan on that. >> i want to know how you do the math and have this increase in defense spending? >> you don't cut defense by $1 trillion. that's what we are talking about. >> what national security issue justify an increase? >> we are going to cut 80,000 soldiers, 20,000 marines, 120 cargo planes. >> drawing down? >> don't cut the military by $1 trillion, not increase it by $1 million, don't cut it by $1 trillion. >> congressman burgess, what the democrats are saying romney would spend over $2 trillion more in defense than obama while at the same time, he's promising to balance the budget. how does that math add up? >> well, look, the first thing of course that has to be faced is january 2nd law signed by
democrats are charging again that the romney/ryan math does not add up. joining me now, republican congressman michael burgess of texas. he's also a member of the tea party caucus. thanks for being with us. >> great. good to be with you, richard. thanks for having me on. >> you bet. defense spending, let's start with that. moderator martha raddatz pressed ryan on that. >> i want to know how you do the math and have this increase in defense spending? >> you don't cut...
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he's made it worse and i think that you're going to find, and i don't know what the polls are saying about this, i think you're going to find that voting against, barack obama, yes is an enthusiasm pusher for some on the right, but this question will keep some of them at that point ped down. >> i think he fixed it on the right. i think the problem is the position paul ryan has is not a popular position in the country. in the platform it's advocacy of an amendment to the constitution that would grant personhood 14th amendment rights to a fetus, to a fertilized egg. i mean, that's an extreme position which is -- that's the official position of the republican party. politics can be bitter and nasty. why that's a good thing coming up next. when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our
he's made it worse and i think that you're going to find, and i don't know what the polls are saying about this, i think you're going to find that voting against, barack obama, yes is an enthusiasm pusher for some on the right, but this question will keep some of them at that point ped down. >> i think he fixed it on the right. i think the problem is the position paul ryan has is not a popular position in the country. in the platform it's advocacy of an amendment to the constitution that...
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and as a result, obama has been sinking in the polls. so i think that he might have staunched the bleeding to some extent on the substance romney attacked obama on. and now, it's all up to the heavy weights in the last two rountdz of the fight. >> charles krauthammer, thank you. >> pleasure. >> fox news teamed up with the folks at twitter to find out what you had to say about tonight's debate. twitter keeping tabs on when the discussion on stage triggered a big discussion online. some of the hottest topics trending tonight on the left total volume of tweets throughout the debate, left side of the screen more than 3.5 million tweets, three topics jumped. foreign policy, 26%, second, economy, 21%, third, taxes, at 17%. for perspective, last week's presidential debate ranked in at a total of 0.3 million tweets. a lot of people using twitter tonight. and again, it's at bret br
and as a result, obama has been sinking in the polls. so i think that he might have staunched the bleeding to some extent on the substance romney attacked obama on. and now, it's all up to the heavy weights in the last two rountdz of the fight. >> charles krauthammer, thank you. >> pleasure. >> fox news teamed up with the folks at twitter to find out what you had to say about tonight's debate. twitter keeping tabs on when the discussion on stage triggered a big discussion...
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. >> i hear the polls have romney up by 67 points today. i think hysteria is a good word and i like andrew sullivan as much as the next conservative -- not conservative pundit he claims to be. i do think -- you know, in politics you can never extrap plate from a given point. everything is trend lines one way or the other direction. that was a bad night for the president and anybody who wants him to win. but it's not the last point we're going to see on the graph here. we're going to see, you know, two more debates, we're going to see more speeches, may see oscar the grouch get involved, who knows. but so, you know, plenty of time. if mitt romney, you know, could survive three bad weeks after the 47% video, the president can survive a bad debate performance and after the next one, whatever happened in the first time, won't matter. he may not -- he may do worse, may do better but won't matter anymore after the next two debates. >> also, to your point about graphs there is a an interesting graph in t"the new york times" when incumbents win and
. >> i hear the polls have romney up by 67 points today. i think hysteria is a good word and i like andrew sullivan as much as the next conservative -- not conservative pundit he claims to be. i do think -- you know, in politics you can never extrap plate from a given point. everything is trend lines one way or the other direction. that was a bad night for the president and anybody who wants him to win. but it's not the last point we're going to see on the graph here. we're going to see,...
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this morning a new gallup poll is showing a tighter race. the president is up three points after being up six points at his peak. abc's karen travers has all of the latest now from the campaign trail. >> reporter: california is safely in president obama's corner, but he's not there looking for votes. he's raising campaign cash, a lot of it. >> are you fired up? >> reporter: the stars came out. george clooney, stevie wonder, jon bon jovi, and katy perry, all on hand to support the president's re-election. >> everything we fought for in 2008 is on the line here in 2012, and i need your help to finish what we started. >> reporter: it will be a lucrative california swing. over two days the obama campaign's expected to raise a minimum of $9.5 million. no surprise that the president is shattering fund-raising records. last month the president's campaign and the democratic party raised $181 million, bringing his re-election total to $835 million. romney's raised at least $548 million so far. mitt romney's spent his second consecutive day asking for
this morning a new gallup poll is showing a tighter race. the president is up three points after being up six points at his peak. abc's karen travers has all of the latest now from the campaign trail. >> reporter: california is safely in president obama's corner, but he's not there looking for votes. he's raising campaign cash, a lot of it. >> are you fired up? >> reporter: the stars came out. george clooney, stevie wonder, jon bon jovi, and katy perry, all on hand to support...
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Oct 10, 2012
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romney up by 4 points in the pew poll. in the swing states, mr. romney leading in colorado by 4. mr. obama leading in pennsylvania by 2, the right poll showing a tie in nevada. the president up in new hampshire by 6 points. and really the one poll we waited on all day, the one poll that might matter more than any other single piece of data, the one piece we got today, president obama holding on to a 4-point lead in ohio. let's poll this one out. this is a cnn number from this afternoon. barack obama with an edge of 4 points in ohio, which is just outside the margin of error. it's far less than the 9-point leads in the survey not long ago. i should say to democrats and obama supporters, i'm sorry if i unleashed those numbers on you with a mature content warning label. but my friend e.j. dionne will be with us later. he says, i was talking with an old friend who was one of the nonpartisan polling outfits. we were discussing the large shifts in some of the polls on the presidential election and the feedback he receives whenever he puts out new numbers that make one side or the other
romney up by 4 points in the pew poll. in the swing states, mr. romney leading in colorado by 4. mr. obama leading in pennsylvania by 2, the right poll showing a tie in nevada. the president up in new hampshire by 6 points. and really the one poll we waited on all day, the one poll that might matter more than any other single piece of data, the one piece we got today, president obama holding on to a 4-point lead in ohio. let's poll this one out. this is a cnn number from this afternoon. barack...
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the gallup poll, for instance, has romney doing five points better. other polls have that a little smaller. so it seems like obama would even today win an election if everyone registered to vote turned out or certainly all adults. but based on the republican enthusiasm advantage and some democrats, i think, feeling a little disupon dent after the pr performance in denver last week, that alone might be enough to push romney over the top. >> the special way that you sort of distill the candidate's chances at 538, your now cast factors in not just polling but also economic data and other measures that you think give you a percentage chance that one of the two candidates will win the election. what's the percentage chance you have for each of the candidates and has that changed less than the national polls changed? >> the percentage is a 70/30 advantage for obama. which, by the way, if you go to vegas or offshore versions of vegas, you can bet at about those odds. obama is a 70% favorite. but my site had obama as an 85% favorite before the debate. means r
the gallup poll, for instance, has romney doing five points better. other polls have that a little smaller. so it seems like obama would even today win an election if everyone registered to vote turned out or certainly all adults. but based on the republican enthusiasm advantage and some democrats, i think, feeling a little disupon dent after the pr performance in denver last week, that alone might be enough to push romney over the top. >> the special way that you sort of distill the...
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let me ask you about the latest polls because the pew poll now shows mitt romney ahead for the first time. these things could bounce around a little bit but certainly shows he has gained some advantage after that debate. >> well, i thought there was an interesting column by a fellow named nate silver 538 in "the new york times" plot s out how the elections have gone in the past. almost always when an incumbent president in the debate and a challenger does well which almost always happens the challenger goes up for a while in the polls but then goes back down. he think it would have much effect on the election and i tend to agree with him. >> that is if the candidate, if the president of the united states, comes back with a different game plan. what do you think he needs to do in the next debate he didn't do in the first debate? >> well, the bottom line is, i think that he is a fighter. i think he will come to the conclusion that he let romney get away with a little too much trying to be very presidential, and i don't think you'll see the same thing in the next debate. >> let's talk a
let me ask you about the latest polls because the pew poll now shows mitt romney ahead for the first time. these things could bounce around a little bit but certainly shows he has gained some advantage after that debate. >> well, i thought there was an interesting column by a fellow named nate silver 538 in "the new york times" plot s out how the elections have gone in the past. almost always when an incumbent president in the debate and a challenger does well which almost...
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Oct 12, 2012
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and the post debate polls, which is where romney really made strides last week. on friday after a full 24 hours of post debate spin right? >> stephanie: right. >> the post debate talk has been pretty rough on ryan but the president is the president. >> stephanie: and we have been saying, i do think we send to be a little bit more honest. we came in and said the president has a bad night. whereas they are just spinning. i'm reading some poll analysis here. it says the most relevant poll comes from cbs news and it says it is 51% compared to 31% for ryan. i mean that was an ass kicking. [ laughter ] >> no doubt. >> stephanie: so you think the townhall will favor the president on tuesday. >> yes, and the fact that he went through this already once. it didn't work his way, and now he has to listen to advise to be more aggressive. he has done it in the past and it has worked for him in the past. so to be honest, i wasn't worried last week, so to say i'm not worried next week i could be wrong again. but obama does do well when his back is up against the wall. obama is s
and the post debate polls, which is where romney really made strides last week. on friday after a full 24 hours of post debate spin right? >> stephanie: right. >> the post debate talk has been pretty rough on ryan but the president is the president. >> stephanie: and we have been saying, i do think we send to be a little bit more honest. we came in and said the president has a bad night. whereas they are just spinning. i'm reading some poll analysis here. it says the most...
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three days of polling after the debate, take a look, romney polling even with the president, erasing a five-point deficit. but then friday's strong jobs report could turn that around. i'm joined now by gallup poll editor in chief frank newport. frank, good to see you. good morning. >> good morning! >> okay, so, let me know what you think. how's the race shaping up? how much have we seen? how much have you been able to poll up to this point? >> boy, we're studying the numbers. in fact, we're just looking at the numbers from last night, which we're adding to our rolling average which we will report out at 1:00 today at gallup.com. our view of the race is that romney definitely got a significant boost on thursday and friday of last week. and by the way, that's probably what was picked up for the most part in that pew poll that was discussed. >> okay. >> but when we monitor our data from saturday and sunday, and now just looking at the numbers from last night, obama is picking back up again. so, we think that that continuation of a huge move by romney is not in the data. so, overall, we
three days of polling after the debate, take a look, romney polling even with the president, erasing a five-point deficit. but then friday's strong jobs report could turn that around. i'm joined now by gallup poll editor in chief frank newport. frank, good to see you. good morning. >> good morning! >> okay, so, let me know what you think. how's the race shaping up? how much have we seen? how much have you been able to poll up to this point? >> boy, we're studying the numbers....
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Oct 15, 2012
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two sets of numbers we're watching closely tonight, the latest gallup poll showing governor romney holding a slim lead, 49-47 nationally, but both campaigns are looking at these numbers from ohio, the battleground state that might decide this. the president with a narrow advantage. tuesday's debate between mitt romney and the president more crucial, and the president's team acknowledging tonight there will be changes in his debate strategy. david kerley at the white house tonight. >> hello, everybody, hello. i brought some food. >> reporter: president obama took a break today to visit a campaign office, now into his second day of intense debate preparation. >> how is it going, sir? >> it is going great. >> reporter: the president is holed up at this williamsburg, virginia, resort walking and enjoying the scenery, we are told, between sessions far from the campaign trail, preparing for his rematch with romney. >> i don't think in recorder -- in the history of presidential debates has there been such a momentum shift off of the first presidential debate, and so the president has to turn the
two sets of numbers we're watching closely tonight, the latest gallup poll showing governor romney holding a slim lead, 49-47 nationally, but both campaigns are looking at these numbers from ohio, the battleground state that might decide this. the president with a narrow advantage. tuesday's debate between mitt romney and the president more crucial, and the president's team acknowledging tonight there will be changes in his debate strategy. david kerley at the white house tonight. >>...